Jochen Röpke
Update 22. Dezember 2008
Die Automobilindustrie liegt danieder. Basisinnovative, energie-ökologische und konjunkturelle Faktoren wirken zusammen. Daß die Basisinnovation Automobil (4. Kondratieff) in reifen Industrieländern seit Jahren ausgereizt ist, ist eigentlich als bekannt. Die Interventionen der Autokanzler und US-Präsidenten ändern daran wenig.
Die Evaluierung des Management der Konzerne und der sie Beratenden können wir dem Markt und den Kräften der schöpferischen Zerstörung überlassen. Zum Niedergang der US-Industrie möchte ich auf einen Artikel von Rick Newman erweisen:
The Autos and Mentality That Ruined Detroit
seekingalpha,16. November 2008
Er zeigt für uns die bemerkenswerte Erosion der Vorstellungskraft (Visionslosigkeit) der Automanager seit den Tagen von Henry Ford.
Ford Model T
The global financial crisis is suffocating the Detroit automakers, but the problems at General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Chrysler have been festering for years—even when the mighty "Big Three" were earning billions. Aging factories, inflexible unions, arrogant executives and shoddy quality have all damaged Detroit. Now, with panicky consumers fleeing showrooms, catastrophe looms: Without a dubious federal bailout, all three automakers face the prospect of bankruptcy. There will be plenty of business-school case studies analyzing all the automakers' wrong turns. But, as they say in the industry, it all comes down to product. So here are ten cars that help explain the demise of Detroit.
Seeking Alpha- Quelle
Ein Hilfspaket für die amerikanische Automobilindustrie wurde (zunächst) vom Senat am 11. Dezember 2008 abgelehnt.
Ein ehemaliger GM-Mitarbeiter kommentiert:
Why I do not support current version of auto bailout... UAW (Gewerkschaft der Automobilarbeiter) should accept NOW not negotiate in 2011 when current contract expire: a) wages comparable to Toyota Honda, and Nissan b) eliminate the current system of getting paid full wages when there is no work and c) accept at least 50% of $23B healthcare the big 3 owe them in GM stock.
It’s ridiculous for auto workers to get paid full with benefits when there is no work at all. If UAW wants to save their jobs they MUST accept wages that are comparable to those American auto workers pay at Toyota, Honda, and Nissan.
All other non union salaried employees at big 3 should make sacrifices equally. My first job of my career was at GM as a chemist and I saw the arrogance in those days. It’s time for everyone to make painful sacrifices to survive.
Investor Village, Celgene Message Board, 11. Dezember 2008, Message 123275
Randall Parker schildert die Probleme, die bis mindestens Mitte Dezember einen Bailout der drei US-Autofirmen verhindern: die Weigerung der Gewerschaften, niedrige Löhne usw. zu akzeptieren. Niemand kann sich auf Dauer dem Gesetz des Faktorausgleichs entziehen, wenn er Produkte herstellt, die andere Länder und Unternehmen (auch im gleichen Land) bei zumindest gleicher Qualität bei niedrigen Kosten herstellt. 2007 Delphi UAW Agreement Shows What UAW FearsWhy is UAW President Gettelfinger claiming that Republican Senators are in league with foreign car companies to break the UAW? A June 2007 agreement between the United Auto Workers union and Delphi during Delphi's bankruptcy gives an insight into what the UAW is afraid of and why the UAW wants the US Congress to loan money to Chrysler and General Motors. Delphi UAW worker salaries went down by almost a third because bankruptcy gave Delphi leverage to renegotiate with the UAW.
The historic restructuring of the American auto industry cleared another major hurdle Friday with the announcement of a deal covering wage cuts and factory closures between bankrupt Delphi Corp. and the United Auto Workers.
The tentative agreement includes a payout of $105,000 over three years that will be offered to about 4,000 of Delphi's 17,000 UAW workers. In return, the workers' pay will be cut from about $27 an hour to a maximum of $18.50 an hour by Oct. 1.
There's a lot more at stake between the Big Three and the UAW aside from hourly wage rates. Retirement benefits and payment for not working during slow periods are both areas where the UAW doesn't want to give up anything.
If GM and Chrysler do not enter bankruptcy and if the US Congress does not force the UAW to make concessions then high UAW wages and benefits will continue until the Big Three burn thru the US Treasury loans that they and the UAW want them to get.
The Big Three need to get their costs down with a big shaving on their bonds (basically mark down the face values and perhaps exchange some of the debt for equity) and also with big labor union concessions on wages, benefits, and hourly rates. The UAW turned down the Republican Senate offer precisely in order to avoid making any concessions. If the Obama Administration lets them get away with this then the effect will be to delay the bankruptcies, not avoid them.
Parapundit. 14. Dezember 2008, 2007 Delphi UAW Agreement Shows What UAW Fears
Die vierte Basisinnovation läuft in den alten Industrieländern in die Stagnation – nicht gleichbedeutend, mit Innovationsarmut. Hybride und Elektroantriebe sind hochinnovativ. Aber sie erzeugen kein aggregiertes Marktwachstum mehr. Anders in den Schwellenländern. Hier herrscht der Multikondratieff. Und die alten Industriestaaten müssen hochachtsam sein, sich nicht von China/Indien überlaufen zu lassen:
Someday, most of these new cars may be electric or hybrids. This is not some pie-in-the-sky vision. China – and the rest of the emerging markets – has an opportunity to leapfrog technologies here, just as it did with communications. China isn’t laying out miles and miles of phone lines. The country is going wireless. In the same way, don’t expect China to invest heaping piles of money in gas stations.
So reasons Alex Molinaroli of Johnson Controls (JCI), which makes car parts and specializes in battery technology. He thinks electric vehicles in China on a large scale could well happen before they do in the U.S. “They don’t have the legacy costs chasing them around,” he says, referring to America’s vast network of service stations and all that supports them.
Penny Sleuth, Seeking alpha, 19. Dezember 2008
„Bush bails out carmakers“
The Financial Times, 20. Dezember 2008, S. 1
Was für die vierte Welle zutrifft, gilt auch für sechste lange Welle. Wo und wie entfaltet sie ihre Werte schaffende Kraft?
China Launches “Mega Program” to Fund Drug Development publication date: Nov 9, 2008
China has instituted a mammoth new drug development program that could be worth up to $10 billion, with the goal of stimulating a first-rank, innovative drug development industry in China. The “Mega New Drug Development Program” is the first government funding program to focus solely on new drug development. Funding will be spread over a total of thirteen years with the initial 6.6 billion RMB (nearly $1 billion) going to projects that are begun from now through 2010. Chinabiotoday
It is important to note that the Mega programs exist in addition to the National 863 and 973 Programs, as well as the $584 billion stimulus program China announced this week to address the current slowdown. The stimulus program could also have a sizable effect on China biopharma, but at this point, it is not clear how much of the $584 billion of stimulus will find its way to the drug sector.
Seeking Alpha, China Biotech in Review: Earnings Week, 17. November 2008. Zum chinesischen Wachstumsprogramm von $ 584 Mrd. siehe mafexpundit „Depression“ vom 17. November.
Die Evaluierung des Management der Konzerne und der sie Beratenden können wir dem Markt und den Kräften der schöpferischen Zerstörung überlassen. Zum Niedergang der US-Industrie möchte ich auf einen Artikel von Rick Newman erweisen:
Er zeigt für uns die bemerkenswerte Erosion der Vorstellungskraft (Visionslosigkeit) der Automanager seit den Tagen von Henry Ford.
The global financial crisis is suffocating the Detroit automakers, but the problems at General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Chrysler have been festering for years—even when the mighty "Big Three" were earning billions. Aging factories, inflexible unions, arrogant executives and shoddy quality have all damaged Detroit. Now, with panicky consumers fleeing showrooms, catastrophe looms: Without a dubious federal bailout, all three automakers face the prospect of bankruptcy. There will be plenty of business-school case studies analyzing all the automakers' wrong turns. But, as they say in the industry, it all comes down to product. So here are ten cars that help explain the demise of Detroit.
Seeking Alpha- Quelle
Ein Hilfspaket für die amerikanische Automobilindustrie wurde (zunächst) vom Senat am 11. Dezember 2008 abgelehnt.
Ein ehemaliger GM-Mitarbeiter kommentiert:
Why I do not support current version of auto bailout... UAW (Gewerkschaft der Automobilarbeiter) should accept NOW not negotiate in 2011 when current contract expire: a) wages comparable to Toyota Honda, and Nissan b) eliminate the current system of getting paid full wages when there is no work and c) accept at least 50% of $23B healthcare the big 3 owe them in GM stock.
It’s ridiculous for auto workers to get paid full with benefits when there is no work at all. If UAW wants to save their jobs they MUST accept wages that are comparable to those American auto workers pay at Toyota, Honda, and Nissan.
All other non union salaried employees at big 3 should make sacrifices equally. My first job of my career was at GM as a chemist and I saw the arrogance in those days. It’s time for everyone to make painful sacrifices to survive.
Investor Village, Celgene Message Board, 11. Dezember 2008, Message 123275
Randall Parker schildert die Probleme, die bis mindestens Mitte Dezember einen Bailout der drei US-Autofirmen verhindern: die Weigerung der Gewerschaften, niedrige Löhne usw. zu akzeptieren. Niemand kann sich auf Dauer dem Gesetz des Faktorausgleichs entziehen, wenn er Produkte herstellt, die andere Länder und Unternehmen (auch im gleichen Land) bei zumindest gleicher Qualität bei niedrigen Kosten herstellt. 2007 Delphi UAW Agreement Shows What UAW Fears
The historic restructuring of the American auto industry cleared another major hurdle Friday with the announcement of a deal covering wage cuts and factory closures between bankrupt Delphi Corp. and the United Auto Workers.
The tentative agreement includes a payout of $105,000 over three years that will be offered to about 4,000 of Delphi's 17,000 UAW workers. In return, the workers' pay will be cut from about $27 an hour to a maximum of $18.50 an hour by Oct. 1.
There's a lot more at stake between the Big Three and the UAW aside from hourly wage rates. Retirement benefits and payment for not working during slow periods are both areas where the UAW doesn't want to give up anything.
If GM and Chrysler do not enter bankruptcy and if the US Congress does not force the UAW to make concessions then high UAW wages and benefits will continue until the Big Three burn thru the US Treasury loans that they and the UAW want them to get.
The Big Three need to get their costs down with a big shaving on their bonds (basically mark down the face values and perhaps exchange some of the debt for equity) and also with big labor union concessions on wages, benefits, and hourly rates. The UAW turned down the Republican Senate offer precisely in order to avoid making any concessions. If the Obama Administration lets them get away with this then the effect will be to delay the bankruptcies, not avoid them.
So reasons Alex Molinaroli of Johnson Controls (JCI), which makes car parts and specializes in battery technology. He thinks electric vehicles in China on a large scale could well happen before they do in the U.S. “They don’t have the legacy costs chasing them around,” he says, referring to America’s vast network of service stations and all that supports them.
Was für die vierte Welle zutrifft, gilt auch für sechste lange Welle. Wo und wie entfaltet sie ihre Werte schaffende Kraft?
China Launches “Mega Program” to Fund Drug Development publication date: Nov 9, 2008
China has instituted a mammoth new drug development program that could be worth up to $10 billion, with the goal of stimulating a first-rank, innovative drug development industry in China. The “Mega New Drug Development Program” is the first government funding program to focus solely on new drug development. Funding will be spread over a total of thirteen years with the initial 6.6 billion RMB (nearly $1 billion) going to projects that are begun from now through 2010. Chinabiotoday
It is important to note that the Mega programs exist in addition to the National 863 and 973 Programs, as well as the $584 billion stimulus program China announced this week to address the current slowdown. The stimulus program could also have a sizable effect on China biopharma, but at this point, it is not clear how much of the $584 billion of stimulus will find its way to the drug sector.
Seeking Alpha, China Biotech in Review: Earnings Week, 17. November 2008. Zum chinesischen Wachstumsprogramm von $ 584 Mrd. siehe mafexpundit „Depression“ vom 17. November.
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